We had been hearing via our mainland sources until recently that Beijing was comfortable with the red-hot growth in the VIP market, and that new curbs were unlikely, despite fears being broadcast around Macau to that effect. But we had not expected the reports in the Macao Daily News (Oumun Yatbo) this week that claimed officials across the border are actually trying to push people to visit Macau more by speeding up visa approvals. So we went back to our channels and this is the picture we got: yes, the reports are true, there is a policy coming down from the top that suggests Macau is a favored son again; moreover, bigger visitor numbers should help to balance the GGR numbers back towards mass, as the VIP percentage had been climbing. Additional thinking is that it would be wrong to sign the free-trade pact with Taiwan and not do something for Macau, seeing as so many direct flights are now bypassing the city.

But at the same time, reality is never that simple in Chinese politics. There is also a growing concern about the potential for the Sino-US relationship to get strained again, which might have an adverse impact on Macau, as Wynn Macau and Sands China play such dominant roles in the gaming industry. This was before Hillary Clinton showed up in Vietnam last week and announced that the US sees resolving disputes and easing tensions in the South China Sea as being in its national interests. Stay tuned, geopolitics at play here, folks.

Used with permission & copyright to IntelMacau