Considering the month Macau has had so far, with revenues conservatively tracking towards a monthly record, perhaps Lady Luck has decided that the city has had enough of her fortunes for now. Typhoon Megi seems certain to hit our shores, with the No. 3 signal going up this afternoon. The ferries will likely be shut tomorrow, just when all those Hongkongers start to skive off work, scrape their pennies together that their spouses don’t know about, and head over for a punt. Oh, woe is us; what are we to do?
It’s ridiculous to think that one typhoon should have an impact on stock prices, that’s for sure. We still cannot even be certain just whether the closure of the ferries will be a net loss for Macau. Why? 1) High-rollers who planned to play this weekend could easily change their travel plans and either arrive earlier or go through the Gongbei land border; 2) All those people already in Macau are probably going to stay over, possibly even getting a hotel room instead of a sauna bed; 3) Did we already mention that nearly two-thirds of all arrivals come in by land?
Indeed, we will never forget the last time we were trapped by a typhoon in Macau. We were at the Venetian, and watched with amusement as management carefully started closing up the lower-limit tables and moved all the remaining players onto HK$500 tables. That was just on the mass floor. It must have been a six-hour record take for the house.
Which brings up the subject of volumes and win-hold. We will elaborate more tomorrow, but it is interesting to look back on the detailed numbers for September and see that rolling-chip volumes were actually down quite a bit across the market, but win-hold kept the revenue numbers within a whisker of matching August’s. Lady Luck has more power in this market than many give her credit for. So perhaps we shouldn’t curse her if the occasional typhoon gets sent our way. Stay tuned.
Used with permission & copyright IntelMacau
